Trump and Russia, a running compilation
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Photo credit: TIME Magazine, Cover, May 18th 2017 |
These are very unusual times. Nearly every news outlet in the world has said so, repeatedly, over the last year and change. But one of the biggest stories that's been dragging on is the story of Trump and Russia. Here, I want to stick to the facts and keep a running compilation of what we know for certain
First - The Russian Government wanted Donald Trump to be President of the US
This is not guesswork, there is a mountain (a growing one at that) of evidence that the Trump campaign was contacted multiple times by high-level Russian officials with offers of information and assistance during the 2016 US Presidential Campaign. For a little recap, this is a handy timeline of the rough stories we heard.
Here's a quote from a US Intelligence Report released in January of 2017-
In a “declassified version of a highly classified assessment” released on Friday January 6, the U.S. intelligence community laid out its judgment that “Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election,” with the specific goal of harming Hillary Clinton’s “electability and potential presidency.” The report went on: “We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.”
And here also is more Blog coverage of a Congressional Hearing on Russian Hacking
This alone is cause for concern. Even if the Campaign had never accepted aid, meetings, or responded in any way, it's still bad. This level of interest in our domestic Presidential election from a hostile foreign power, especially one that has repeatedly performed hacking attacks on the US. Since it's clear they knowingly did accept information and aid from Russian officials... Well, that's worse.
While there is evidence that Russia was rooting for Trump, they also would (and will) settle for just wrecking the US Election system, either through a loss of faith and confidence, or through outright hacking attacks. There's evidence for that it Comey's recent Testimony. That said, that testimony also confirms that the most recent director of the FBI was confident that Russia had a strong preference for President Trump.
There is also plenty of broader information on Russia-US relations that explains why Trump is a better option for Russia than Clinton would have been, well summed up here - with the focus being on what kind of threat Clinton was. For a slightly different, but similar breakdown, Newsweek also has an article on the subject, and theirs is more targeted to how President Trump actively benefits Russia. The Newsweek article has some especially damning points that I hadn't even considered, like Trump's slashing of State Department funding and filling many government roles with people who are actively friendly towards Russia.
Second - The Donald Trump Campaign had repeated contact with Russian Officials
This was during, and since, the campaign. This has been big in the news recently in particular, but has been buzzing around for over a year.
Trump Jr. was directly offered information, through one of the Trump Family's business partners. And he willingly accepted the offer, and passed it on to his father. This was when, right off the bat, he knew for a fact this was an offer to impact the US Presidential Election, offered by the Russian Government. This is the latest and hottest news, and speaks volumes about the facts around the rumors.
Not only that, but that meeting was attended by Jared Kushner (Trump's Son-in-law and close advisor), and Paul Manafort (Trump's Campaign Chairman).
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What's worse, he admitted that US Sanctions on Russia had been a topic of conversation with Russian officials. Even to the point that it's possible he offered to use a Trump Presidency to reduce or remove sanctions of Russia in exchange for help in the Campaign.
Later, when brought before Congress to testify on all of this, Flynn requested Immunity from prosecution in exchange for testimony. Which strongly implies that there is more to tell, and that it is enough that he (and others) could face legal action for it.
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Paul Manafort, Trump's Campaign Chairman/Manager, is rumored to have received money direct from wealthy Russians while working in Ukraine (although granted, that was well before the Trump campaign) but is also known to have worked with close ties to Russia for years. And he also resigned under suspicious circumstances.
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Politico has put together a handy collection of many (not even all) of the various ways Trump and his team(s) are connected with Russia (several images already referenced above).
Russian manipulation even extended deeply enough that Trump Campaign spokespeople (including Trump himself) repeatedly referred to stories that are known to be untrue, but are pushed by Russian Propaganda channels.
Trump himself announced plans to work on a cyber security partnership with Russia. This is despite the fact that we know Russia has repeatedly hacked the US (more here, here), and is currently ramping up their cyber warfare capabilites. Here is a rough history of their known activities across the world. Russia is also implicated in hacking attacks in France's recent election (although they failed), and Brexit in the UK.
What's most amazing about that story, is how incredibly stupid of a proposal it was. While Trump is currently under massive amounts of fire, not to mention active investigation, and Russia is becoming viewed more and more as a hostile actor, Trump comes out and proposes a partnership? And one on cyber warfare of all things? It was such a political blunder, that he withdrew the proposal very quickly.
I bring this up because it was one more piece of evidence, along with reduction on sanctions, sharing classified information with Putin, being openly critical of Europe and NATO, and downplaying election interference, that Trump is still trying to help Russia. To somehow make Russia look better, or himself less guilty, or both.
Yes and maybe. Even the Trump Administration thinks this is really bad, and knows they're in hot water. That again by itself is telling. Simply because of what Russia is and what it represents to the US, this is bad.
But, is any of this technically criminal? That, in many ways, is the biggest question currently unanswered.
This article says - sort of. Collusion in and of itself is not a crime. While these close communications are not technically illegal, there is strong evidence that people involved lied about these connections, received "something of value" to an Election Campaign from a Foreign Government, are guilty of conspiracy, wire fraud, election fraud, etc. These things are absolutely illegal.
And, let's say this here, damaging information on your political opponent in a close Presidential election is very much "of value." If Flynn did offer to trade US sanctions of Russia for help in the Campaign, that would be illegal. That seems more than possible, since during the campaign as people like Flynn and Manafort joined the team, Trump's Campaign Stance suddenly softened dramatically on sanctioning Russia for the involvement in the Ukraine. And later, publicly spoke against a bill Sanctioning Russian Actors caught executing malicious cyber attacks (or hacking).
Trump himself publicly asked Russia to help his campaign through hacking. He claims he was joking, and in fairness, it came across as a joke, even if it's a legally problematic one.
The Trump Administrations active efforts to downplay or deny their relations with Russia are bad, and if they have made any effort to cover up their interactions with Russia (like this), that would be very illegal at this point.
This is where we leave off with questions. A Special Counsel (prosecutor) has already been named, Robert Mueller, to carry out a thorough investigation into actual legal wrongdoing. Mueller is lawyer, and was Director of the FBI for 12 years, appointed by George W. Bush shortly after 9/11. He is known for being very serious, methodical, and thorough. If there is anything to find, there's a good chance he will, or has already, found it.
That said, mister Mueller hasn't made any public statements yet. What he has done though is hire investigators and lawyers - a lot of lawyers.
At the very least, we as Americans should all be angry, very angry, that we're being led around the nose as much as we know we have been, let alone what we don't know yet. But there is some comfort in knowing that there is enough incriminating evidence out there that it won't take much more for the case to become undeniable.
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